from io import BytesIO
from itertools import product
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from numpy.testing import assert_allclose, assert_array_equal
from statsmodels import tools
from statsmodels.regression.linear_model import WLS
from statsmodels.regression.rolling import RollingWLS, RollingOLS
def gen_data(nobs, nvar, const, pandas=False, missing=0.0,
weights=False):
rs = np.random.RandomState(987499302)
x = rs.standard_normal((nobs, nvar))
cols = ['x{0}'.format(i) for i in range(nvar)]
if const:
x = tools.add_constant(x)
cols = ['const'] + cols
if missing > 0.0:
mask = rs.random_sample(x.shape) < missing
x[mask] = np.nan
if x.shape[1] > 1:
y = x[:, :-1].sum(1) + rs.standard_normal(nobs)
else:
y = x.sum(1) + rs.standard_normal(nobs)
w = rs.chisquare(5, y.shape[0]) / 5
if pandas:
idx = pd.date_range('12-31-1999', periods=nobs)
x = pd.DataFrame(x, index=idx, columns=cols)
y = pd.Series(y, index=idx, name='y')
w = pd.Series(w, index=idx, name='weights')
if not weights:
w = None
return y, x, w
nobs = (250,)
nvar = (3, 0)
tf = (True, False)
missing = (0, 0.1)
params = list(product(nobs, nvar, tf, tf, missing))
params = [param for param in params if param[1] + param[2] > 0]
ids = ['-'.join(map(str, param)) for param in params]
basic_params = [param for param in params if params[2] and params[4]]
weighted_params = [param + (tf,) for param in params for tf in (True, False)]
weighted_ids = ['-'.join(map(str, param)) for param in weighted_params]
@pytest.fixture(scope='module', params=params, ids=ids)
def data(request):
return gen_data(*request.param)
@pytest.fixture(scope='module', params=basic_params, ids=ids)
def basic_data(request):
return gen_data(*request.param)
@pytest.fixture(scope='module', params=weighted_params, ids=weighted_ids)
def weighted_data(request):
return gen_data(*request.param)
def get_single(x, idx):
if isinstance(x, (pd.Series, pd.DataFrame)):
return x.iloc[idx]
return x[idx]
def get_sub(x, idx, window):
if isinstance(x, (pd.Series, pd.DataFrame)):
out = x.iloc[idx - window:idx]
return np.asarray(out)
return x[idx - window:idx]
def test_has_nan(data):
y, x, w = data
mod = RollingWLS(y, x, window=100, weights=w)
has_nan = np.zeros(y.shape[0], dtype=np.bool)
for i in range(100, y.shape[0] + 1):
_y = get_sub(y, i, 100)
_x = get_sub(x, i, 100)
has_nan[i - 1] = np.squeeze((np.any(np.isnan(_y)) or
np.any(np.isnan(_x))))
assert_array_equal(mod._has_nan, has_nan)
def test_weighted_against_wls(weighted_data):
y, x, w = weighted_data
mod = RollingWLS(y, x, weights=w, window=100)
res = mod.fit(use_t=True)
for i in range(100, y.shape[0]):
_y = get_sub(y, i, 100)
_x = get_sub(x, i, 100)
if w is not None:
_w = get_sub(w, i, 100)
else:
_w = np.ones_like(_y)
wls = WLS(_y, _x, weights=_w, missing='drop').fit()
rolling_params = get_single(res.params, i - 1)
rolling_nobs = get_single(res.nobs, i - 1)
assert_allclose(rolling_params, wls.params)
assert_allclose(rolling_nobs, wls.nobs)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.ssr, i - 1), wls.ssr)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.llf, i - 1), wls.llf)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.aic, i - 1), wls.aic)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.bic, i - 1), wls.bic)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.centered_tss, i - 1), wls.centered_tss)
assert_allclose(res.df_model, wls.df_model)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.df_resid, i - 1), wls.df_resid)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.ess, i - 1), wls.ess, atol=1e-8)
assert_allclose(res.k_constant, wls.k_constant)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.mse_model, i - 1), wls.mse_model)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.mse_resid, i - 1), wls.mse_resid)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.mse_total, i - 1), wls.mse_total)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.rsquared, i - 1), wls.rsquared,
atol=1e-8)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.rsquared_adj, i - 1), wls.rsquared_adj,
atol=1e-8)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.uncentered_tss, i - 1),
wls.uncentered_tss)
@pytest.mark.parametrize('cov_type', ['nonrobust', 'HC0'])
@pytest.mark.parametrize('use_t', [None, True, False])
def test_against_wls_inference(data, use_t, cov_type):
y, x, w = data
mod = RollingWLS(y, x, window=100, weights=w)
res = mod.fit(use_t=use_t, cov_type=cov_type)
ci_cols = ci = res.conf_int()
test_cols = x.shape[1] > 3
# This is a smoke test of cov_params to make sure it works
res.cov_params()
if test_cols:
ci_cols = res.conf_int(cols=[0, 2])
# Skip to improve performance
for i in range(100, y.shape[0]):
_y = get_sub(y, i, 100)
_x = get_sub(x, i, 100)
wls = WLS(_y, _x, missing='drop').fit(use_t=use_t, cov_type=cov_type)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.tvalues, i - 1), wls.tvalues)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.bse, i - 1), wls.bse)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.pvalues, i - 1), wls.pvalues, atol=1e-8)
assert_allclose(get_single(res.fvalue, i - 1), wls.fvalue)
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore'):
assert_allclose(get_single(res.f_pvalue, i - 1), wls.f_pvalue,
atol=1e-8)
assert res.cov_type == wls.cov_type
assert res.use_t == wls.use_t
wls_ci = wls.conf_int()
if isinstance(ci, pd.DataFrame):
ci_val = ci.iloc[i - 1]
ci_val = np.asarray(ci_val).reshape((-1, 2))
else:
ci_val = ci[i - 1].T
assert_allclose(ci_val, wls_ci)
if test_cols:
wls_ci = wls.conf_int(cols=[0, 2])
if isinstance(ci_cols, pd.DataFrame):
ci_val = ci_cols.iloc[i - 1]
ci_val = np.asarray(ci_val).reshape((-1, 2))
else:
ci_val = ci_cols[i - 1].T
assert_allclose(ci_val, wls_ci)
def test_raise(data):
y, x, w = data
mod = RollingWLS(y, x, window=100, missing='drop', weights=w)
res = mod.fit()
params = np.asarray(res.params)
assert np.all(np.isfinite(params[99:]))
if not np.any(np.isnan(y)):
return
mod = RollingWLS(y, x, window=100, missing='skip')
res = mod.fit()
params = np.asarray(res.params)
assert np.any(np.isnan(params[100:]))
def test_error():
y, x, _ = gen_data(250, 2, True)
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='reset must be a positive integer'):
RollingWLS(y, x, ).fit(reset=-1)
with pytest.raises(ValueError):
RollingWLS(y, x).fit(method='unknown')
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='min_nobs must be larger'):
RollingWLS(y, x, min_nobs=1)
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='min_nobs must be larger'):
RollingWLS(y, x, window=60, min_nobs=100)
def test_save_load(data):
y, x, w = data
res = RollingOLS(y, x, window=60).fit()
fh = BytesIO()
# test wrapped results load save pickle
res.save(fh)
fh.seek(0, 0)
res_unpickled = res.__class__.load(fh)
assert type(res_unpickled) is type(res) # noqa: E721
fh = BytesIO()
# test wrapped results load save pickle
res.save(fh, remove_data=True)
fh.seek(0, 0)
res_unpickled = res.__class__.load(fh)
assert type(res_unpickled) is type(res) # noqa: E721
def test_formula():
y, x, w = gen_data(250, 3, True, pandas=True)
fmla = 'y ~ 1 + x0 + x1 + x2'
data = pd.concat([y, x], axis=1)
mod = RollingWLS.from_formula(fmla, window=100, data=data, weights=w)
res = mod.fit()
alt = RollingWLS(y, x, window=100)
alt_res = alt.fit()
assert_allclose(res.params, alt_res.params)
ols_mod = RollingOLS.from_formula(fmla, window=100, data=data)
ols_mod.fit()
@pytest.mark.matplotlib
def test_plot():
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
y, x, w = gen_data(250, 3, True, pandas=True)
fmla = 'y ~ 1 + x0 + x1 + x2'
data = pd.concat([y, x], axis=1)
mod = RollingWLS.from_formula(fmla, window=100, data=data, weights=w)
res = mod.fit()
fig = res.plot_recursive_coefficient()
assert isinstance(fig, plt.Figure)
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables=2, alpha=None,
figsize=(30, 7))
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables='x0', alpha=None,
figsize=(30, 7))
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables=[0, 2], alpha=None,
figsize=(30, 7))
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables=['x0'], alpha=None,
figsize=(30, 7))
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables=['x0', 'x1', 'x2'], alpha=None,
figsize=(30, 7))
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='variable x4 is not an integer'):
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(variables='x4')
fig = plt.Figure()
with pytest.warns(UserWarning, match="tight_layout"):
out = res.plot_recursive_coefficient(fig=fig)
assert out is fig
res.plot_recursive_coefficient(alpha=None, figsize=(30, 7))
def test_methods(basic_data):
y, x, _ = basic_data
mod = RollingOLS(y, x, 150)
res_inv = mod.fit(method='inv')
res_lstsq = mod.fit(method='lstsq')
res_pinv = mod.fit(method='pinv')
assert_allclose(res_inv.params, res_lstsq.params)
assert_allclose(res_inv.params, res_pinv.params)
def test_min_nobs(basic_data):
y, x, w = basic_data
if not np.any(np.isnan(np.asarray(x))):
return
mod = RollingOLS(y, x, 150)
res = mod.fit()
# Ensures that the constraint binds
min_nobs = res.nobs[res.nobs != 0].min() + 1
mod = RollingOLS(y, x, 150, min_nobs=min_nobs)
res = mod.fit()
assert np.all(res.nobs[res.nobs != 0] >= min_nobs)