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alkaline-ml / statsmodels   python

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Version: 0.11.1 

/ tsa / vector_ar / tests / JMulTi_results / macrodata_jmulti_cst.txt

*** Sat, 3 Sep 2016 22:34:05 ***
VAR ESTIMATION RESULTS
endogenous variables:     realcons realgdp realinv 
exogenous variables:       
deterministic variables:  CONST S1 S2 S3 TREND 
endogenous lags:          4 
exogenous lags:           0 
sample range:             [1960 Q1, 2009 Q3], T = 199

modulus of the eigenvalues of the reverse characteristic polynomial :
|z| = ( 1.5030     1.5030     1.9859     1.9859     8.0600     3.3058     1.5023     1.5023     1.0605     1.0605     1.2661     1.0124     )
Legend:
=======
              Equation 1   Equation 2  ...
------------------------------------------
Variable 1 | Coefficient          ...
           | (Std. Dev.)
           | {p - Value}
           | [t - Value]
Variable 2 |         ...
...
------------------------------------------


Lagged endogenous term:
=======================
              realcons   realgdp   realinv  
-------------------------------------------
realcons(t-1)|    1.426     1.290     0.956  
             |   (0.114)   (0.196)   (0.142) 
             |   {0.000}   {0.000}   {0.000} 
             |  [12.492]   [6.592]   [6.737] 
realgdp (t-1)|   -0.268     0.540    -0.163  
             |   (0.090)   (0.154)   (0.112) 
             |   {0.003}   {0.000}   {0.145} 
             |  [-2.982]   [3.500]  [-1.459] 
realinv (t-1)|    0.309     0.347     1.168  
             |   (0.104)   (0.179)   (0.130) 
             |   {0.003}   {0.052}   {0.000} 
             |   [2.966]   [1.940]   [9.012] 
realcons(t-2)|   -0.134    -0.681    -0.650  
             |   (0.192)   (0.330)   (0.239) 
             |   {0.485}   {0.039}   {0.007} 
             |  [-0.698]  [-2.065]  [-2.718] 
realgdp (t-2)|    0.054     0.394     0.209  
             |   (0.129)   (0.221)   (0.160) 
             |   {0.675}   {0.075}   {0.192} 
             |   [0.420]   [1.779]   [1.304] 
realinv (t-2)|   -0.150    -0.465    -0.336  
             |   (0.164)   (0.282)   (0.204) 
             |   {0.362}   {0.099}   {0.100} 
             |  [-0.912]  [-1.648]  [-1.644] 
realcons(t-3)|    0.160    -0.107    -0.139  
             |   (0.197)   (0.337)   (0.245) 
             |   {0.415}   {0.751}   {0.570} 
             |   [0.815]  [-0.317]  [-0.568] 
realgdp (t-3)|   -0.014    -0.183    -0.217  
             |   (0.128)   (0.220)   (0.159) 
             |   {0.913}   {0.405}   {0.173} 
             |  [-0.110]  [-0.832]  [-1.362] 
realinv (t-3)|   -0.038     0.127     0.251  
             |   (0.162)   (0.277)   (0.201) 
             |   {0.813}   {0.645}   {0.212} 
             |  [-0.236]   [0.460]   [1.248] 
realcons(t-4)|   -0.449    -0.384    -0.112  
             |   (0.132)   (0.226)   (0.164) 
             |   {0.001}   {0.089}   {0.495} 
             |  [-3.402]  [-1.698]  [-0.683] 
realgdp (t-4)|    0.218     0.167     0.149  
             |   (0.094)   (0.161)   (0.117) 
             |   {0.020}   {0.301}   {0.201} 
             |   [2.318]   [1.034]   [1.278] 
realinv (t-4)|   -0.104    -0.084    -0.196  
             |   (0.111)   (0.191)   (0.138) 
             |   {0.352}   {0.661}   {0.155} 
             |  [-0.931]  [-0.438]  [-1.421] 
-------------------------------------------


Deterministic term:
===================
          realcons   realgdp   realinv  
---------------------------------------
CONST   |   24.900    42.506   -18.948  
        |  (24.888)  (42.686)  (30.949) 
        |   {0.317}   {0.319}   {0.540} 
        |   [1.000]   [0.996]  [-0.612] 
S1   (t)|    4.467     7.211     4.148  
        |   (5.538)   (9.499)   (6.887) 
        |   {0.420}   {0.448}   {0.547} 
        |   [0.807]   [0.759]   [0.602] 
S2   (t)|   -1.542    14.076     7.342  
        |   (5.455)   (9.357)   (6.784) 
        |   {0.777}   {0.132}   {0.279} 
        |  [-0.283]   [1.504]   [1.082] 
S3   (t)|    8.801    12.824     6.303  
        |   (5.520)   (9.467)   (6.864) 
        |   {0.111}   {0.176}   {0.358} 
        |   [1.594]   [1.355]   [0.918] 
TREND(t)|    0.386     0.532    -0.108  
        |   (0.351)   (0.602)   (0.436) 
        |   {0.271}   {0.376}   {0.804} 
        |   [1.100]   [0.885]  [-0.248] 
---------------------------------------